Calling the Brexit end-result at this point, is a guessing game!

March 11, 2019

I have been watching the Brexit issue for quite some time, with an initial post,[1] a follow-up,[2] and ongoing monitoring of developments and the commentary on same – both by people with and without a clue as to what they were talking about.

Now, however, as the deadline of March 29, 2019 looms, I think calling the end result, with all the twists and turns to date, is a guessing game.

I would make two guesses and say that allowing for the UK[3] to have additional negotiating time is an outside possibility, with the more likely result being a second Referendum, a change in prime minister, and the eventual demise of Brexit on what will likely be described as sober second thoughts, or the like.  Of course, this would not go down too well with the “Yes/Leaver” voters.

In my second “alternative” guess, there would be a Hard Brexit (being the least-favoured result), and Britain would muddle-on from there to negotiate and secure its own individualized and strategic trade and security partnerships.  Again, this would not go down too well with the “No/Remainer” voters.

One least likely option – far into the outside possibility zone, is for the Europeans to cave-in at the last minute and give the Brits the sweeter deal that they want.  This is quite unlikely, due to the fact that it might well encourage other E.U. members to leave, and it would doubtless cause some protests and instability in parts of Europe that remain within Europe, or that also have vocal and dedicated elements, or even persistent groups – (not unlike the French Yellow Vest protest movement),[4] who want to leave the E.U. and follow the U.K. lead, or who have other gripes.  This, however, is not one of my guesses.

I really do not see any way that a period of some instability can be avoided in the U.K., and I would hazard a guess that some highly visible and tangible security measures and “precautionary restrictions” will be put into place as the March 29, 2019 date emerges; doubtless to charges of fascism that would speed a change of prime minister.

Of course, I could be entirely wrong on both guesses, and even that “outside chance” third case.  But, there are 18 more nail-biting days of votes and twists and turns to go.  So, let’s count them down![5]

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Author:

Ekundayo George is a lawyer and sociologist.  He has also taken courses in organizational and micro-organizational behavior, and gained significant experience in regulatory compliance, litigation, and business law and counseling.  He is licensed to practise law in Ontario and Alberta, Canada, as well as in New York, New Jersey, and Washington, D.C., in the United States of America.  See, for example: http://www.ogalaws.com.  A writer, blogger, and avid reader, Mr. George has sector experience in Technology (Telecommunications, eCommerce, Outsourcing, Cloud), Financial Services, Healthcare, Entertainment, Real Estate and Zoning, International/cross-border trade, other services, and Environmental Law and Policy; working with equal ease and effectiveness in his transitions to and from the public and private sectors.  He is a published author on the National Security aspects of Environmental Law, has represented clients in courts and before regulatory bodies in both Canada and the United States, and he enjoys complex systems analysis in legal, technological, and societal milieux. Trained in Legal Project Management (and having organized and managed several complex projects before practising law), Mr. George is also an experienced negotiator, facilitator, team leader, and strategic consultant – sourcing, managing, and delivering on complex engagements with multiple stakeholders and multidisciplinary teams.  Team consulting competencies include program investigation, sub-contracted procurement of personnel and materials, and such diverse project deliverables as business process re-engineering, devising and delivering tailored training, and other targeted engagements through tapping a highly-credentialed resource pool of contract professionals with several hundred years of combined expertise, in: healthcare; education and training; law and regulation; policy and plans; statistics, economics, and evaluations including feasibility studies; infrastructure; and information technology/information systems (IT/IS) – also sometimes termed information communications technologies (ICT).  See, for example: http://www.simprime-ca.com.

 

Hyperlinks to external sites are provided to readers of this blog as a courtesy and convenience, only, and no warranty is made or responsibility assumed by either or both of George Law Offices and Strategic IMPRIME Consulting & Advisory, Inc. (“S’imprime-ça”) including employees, agents, directors, officers, successors & assigns, in whole or in part for their content, accuracy, or availability.

 

This article creates no lawyer-client relationship, and is not intended or deemed legal advice, business advice, the rendering of any professional service, or attorney advertising where restricted or barred.  The author and affiliated entities specifically disclaim and reject any and all loss claimed, no matter howsoever resulting as alleged, due to any action or inaction done in reliance on the contents herein.  Past results are no guarantee of future success, and specific legal advice should be sought for particular matters through counsel of your choosing, based on such factors as you deem appropriate.

 

[1] Ekundayo George.  Analyzing the 2016 Brexit: A Classically Complex Conundrum.  Posted June 30, 2016 on ogalaws.wordpress.com.  Web:  <https://ogalaws.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/analyzing-the-2016-brexit-a-classically-complex-conundrum/>

[2] Ekundayo George.  Analyzing the 2016 Brexit: The UK Exit Plan is Revealed, Promising a “Hybridized” End-result. January 20, 2017.   Web: <https://ogalaws.wordpress.com/2017/01/20/analyzing-the-2016-brexit-the-uk-exit-plan-is-revealed-promising-a-hybridized-end-result/>

[3] Britain and the U.K. are used interchangeably, here.

[4] France 24 Press.  French Yellow Vest protesters hold 17th weekend of marches.  Posted March 9, 2019 on france24.com.  <https://www.france24.com/en/20190309-Yellow-Vests-find-new-ways-protest-Act-17>

[5] *Reserved*

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